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Will Sinn Féin overcome effect of bad publicity?

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Gerry Adams....moment of truth.

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

It was the American showman Phineas T Barnum who was supposed to have coined the phrase there’s no such thing as bad publicity.

Anyone following poll data for Sinn Féin in recent months might believe it has a ring to truth in it. No matter what past scandal and outrage has cropped up, the party still seems to be forging ahead.

Last year, Gerry Adams was arrested in connection with the disappearance and murder of Jean McConville over 40 years ago. The arrest happened just before the local elections. The result was a huge bounce in the polls for Sinn Féin.

Then in the autumn, Maíria Cahill came forward with her story about kangaroo trials following her allegations of being raped by an IRA member. What she said was damaging to Adams in particular but there was no evidence Sinn Féin suffered in the polls.

But is Sinn Féin really undamaged by the slew of allegations? Sometimes, reactions in opinion polls lag a little behind the news curve. And sometimes it takes some time for a particular trend to manifest itself.

The language of the Barnum quote is alluring and memorable but it’s not really an iron law of reality.

In the past few months, there have been numerous reminders of the Republican movement’s less savoury side over the past thirty years.

Most Sinn Féin spokespeople – sorry, all Sinn Féin spokespeople – have said that some of the attacks are politically motivated, or are being manipulated for cynical political purposes.

And of course, some are. There is no doubt about it.

But it’s hard to see the point that Sinn Féin is making. It is no slouch itself when it comes to making opportunistic and cynical political attacks on its opponents. Indeed, this is one areas where Irish politics affords equal opportunities to everybody.

When controversies erupt in the political sphere, the initial allegation can seem manageable. The real damage is done, however, when more allegations emerge or when the controversy does not look like reaching its conclusion.

In other words, it gets to a stage where it is not what is written in the headlines that causes political damage but the very fact that the adverse headlines continue.

We often hear the concept of death by a thousand cuts. Charlie Haughey survived a lot of scandals and three heaves against him. In the end what did for him was an old allegation, easily defended, reheated. But it seemed that a tipping point had been reached.

It was the same for Bertie Ahern. The biggest allegation against him, of all this extra money and ‘dig out’ donations, was made in September of 2007 and yet he seemed to weather the storm. But the headlines just kept coming and in the end the accumulation of a lot of small controversies just became too much.

Are we seeing the same thing with Sinn Féin now? Are we going to see the party, and its leader, facing dozens of allegations about the most egregious behaviour of republicans during the height of the Troubles.

This week RTE PrimeTime Investigates did a fine documentary, Above the Law, about punishment shootings and beatings during the conflict.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

Connacht Tribune

Best laid plans and programmes can fall foul of political reality

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Debate snub...Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald.

World of Politics with Harry McGee

If architects’ plans were like the Programme of Government,

  1. the country would be full of unfinished buildings
  2. that would look nothing like the plans.

Prospective governments spend weeks – and sleepless nights – working out the programme that will be the blueprint for their term of office.

Some even produce a glossy self-congratulatory report each year, showing how many of its targets have been achieved.

Two things need to be said about that:

  1. They are subjective.
  2. Nobody outside the bubble pays any attention to them.

Some set out ambitious targets for the first 100 days of government. That idea has been around since the 1930s and is designed to show a signal of intent, that the new Government is going to put its money where its mouth is.

More often than not the new regime learns to its cost that it has bitten off more than it can chew. Achieving something in the world of politics within 100 days is like reading Tolstoy’s War and Peace during a lunch break.

  1. Not exactly impossible
  2. But not exactly possible

And do governments learn from these mistakes? Do they realise that it is a bit of a ridiculous concept?

  1. No
  2. No

There is a political problem here. You might achieve the big things in politics, you might get a wobbly economy back on to an even keel, you might create a historic record for employment, you might push through the six referendums you promised to liberalise society.

But it’s a bit like the guy who earns a reputation for not buying a round. No matter if he has devoted his life to the service of others, and has sacrificed everything for the personal good.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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Politics and law have been entwined through the ages

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Seamus Woulfe...at the centre of latest storm.

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

I remember when I was a kid there was an Irish rugby tour to apartheid South Africa which caused a huge furore, including a (if I remember correctly) a shouty row on The Late Late Show. One of the arguments used by those favouring the tour was: “Sports and politics should not mix.”

It went down well as a sound bite but was a nonsense; the reality is that politics mixes with everything, including sports. Nothing occurs in a vacuum.

Politicians make decisions over how sport is funded, how it is governed and regulated (look at the recent row over John Delaney’s tenure), and sometimes when it can be played.

All sports organisations have their own internal politics which can be more vicious than the stuff that goes on in Leinster House. And political parties have long ago discovered the benefits of putting a high profile former sportsperson up as a candidate.

Which brings us onto the bigger issue: the separation of powers in the State. Our Constitution draws out a relationship between the three arms of State – the Executive (government), Judiciary and Parliament (the Oireachtas). The impression that has been handed down to us is they are three goldfish in different bowls, all swimming, but in different waters.

It just doesn’t work out like that in real life. For one, for most of the history of the State, parliament has essentially been a chattel of government, with no real separate powers of its own.

In recent years, with less stable majorities for government than in the past, that relationship has changed – but parliament is still very much subservient to central Government.

It’s not just lip service when it comes to relationships with the legal establishment. There is an effort to assert that they operate in separate spheres but real life often intrudes – it’s more or less impossible to maintain the divide, unless you do it artificially.

For one, it is politicians who appoint judges, not other judges. Now, of course, judges have a say in it. There is the Judicial Appointments Advisory Board (JAAB) which assesses the merits of lawyers who are not yet judges.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.

 

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Connacht Tribune

Biden brings normality back to world’s most powerful office

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US President-elect Joe Biden celebrates his victory with his wife Jill and his Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris.

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

I did not want to make the same mistake I made four years ago. Then I stayed up until about 1.30am and it looked like it was going okay for Hillary Clinton in Florida. So I said to myself, that big buffoon is done for. When I woke up the next morning Donald Trump was the President of the United States. He had somehow managed to win Florida and dismantled the Blue Wall of Democrat States in the Mid-West by taking Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.

This time I stayed up until 4.30 in the morning. And that was a mistake too. For the picture was as unclear then as it was 12 hours later.

It was too close to call but already commentators were talking of a red mirage; most on-the-day voters plumped for Trump but early voters – whose votes were counted last – had steered very sharply towards Joe Biden.

It was historic. It’s really hard to knock out an incumbent president seeking a second term. It had been done only eight times before that in two and a half centuries.

Was it his inept handling of Covid-19? Had people grown sick of his vanity and his self-serving boasts? Did this natural disruption just cause too much turmoil and uncertainty in people’s lives? Did his partisan views, that red-mist madness, repel more than it attracted?

Well, the evidence is in the poll. The answer to all those questions is yes. To me, the outcome was clear. Biden won the popular votes. He also won the electoral colleges.

The majority was small and reflects a very divided society. Trump is the champion of rural, less educated, blue collar white, conservative, Hispanic and white America. Biden is popular among the middle classes, the urbanites, the better educated, and black voters.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

Get the Connacht Tribune Live app

The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.

 

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