World of Politics with Harry McGee

The moment that Jim Gavin withdrew from the presidential election, it was a foregone conclusion; Catherine Connolly could not lose it. But now that the dust is settling, what does it mean on the broader political stage?

The Presidential election was a second-tier election, which meant that voters didn’t really give it the same amount of consideration as if it were a general election.

Some, at least, use it as an occasion to express their displeasure at the Government or the Government’s performance. This election was no exception.

For a Government candidate to win, it needed both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in the race – and even then, it would have been difficult.

Since 1990, the only Government candidate to win a presidential election was Mary MacAleese, and that came just months after Bertie Ahern had won the general election for Fianna Fáil.

So, for a Fine Gael candidate to win, another centrist candidate was needed.

Heather Humphries would always have finished ahead of Jim Gavin and would have hoovered up most of his transfers – but not all.

Some of them, at least, would have gone to Catherine Connolly because she would have been a better fit for those in Fianna Fáil who have a Republican bent, or who believe that the Irish language is an important issue, when it comes to choosing a President.

So is there a wave – or specifically, is there a left-wing wave?

Every so often in Irish politics, we see this happening. There was the Spring Tide in 1992 when Dick Spring and the Labour Party won 33 seats. That momentum was not maintained.

Then there was the Gilmore Gale in 2011 when Eamonn Gilmore and the Labor Party won 37 seats. That momentum was also not maintained.

In 2020, we saw Sinn Féin have a tremendous election and win 38 seats, and it could have won even more if it had been braver with its selection decisions. But as we saw in the 2024 election, again that momentum was not maintained.

The first thing that must be said this time is that not everybody who voted for Catherine Connolly was left-wing.

There were a lot of people who supported Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael who probably voted for her because they thought that she would be a better President than Heather Humphreys.

Pictured: Catherine Connolly with her son Stephen after voting in the polling station at St Nicholas’ National School in the Claddagh last Friday morning. Photo: Joe O’Shaughnessy