World of Politics with Harry McGee

The first moment you see a Government fail is the moment it is formed; that might seem very pessimistic but to survive in politics you have to have the backing of the people.

And like it or not when you go into government, you will immediately be failing some people who think that by even going in with the other crowd, it’s a compromise too far.

That will be preying on the mind of Social Democrats supporters over the Christmas period. Few people think the party will go into government but if it does, there is always a chance that the party could end up as toast after the next election, if recent history and precedence (the Green Party) is anything to go on.

So where stand all the parties (and Independents) at this moment of time?

Fianna Fáil

Upsides: Had the best election of the three big parties but was helped by a very favourable bounce of the ball. While getting only one per cent of the vote more than Fine Gael, it ended up with ten more seats, giving it the whip hand in government formation talks.

The other upsides for Fianna Fáil is Micheál Martin’s popularity. He has become a real survivor in Irish politics and is trusted (for now). The party has also elected a number of young new TDs who will help it combat its ageing profile. It’s also made a strong comeback in Dublin especially given it had no TD in the capital after Brian Lenihan died in mid-2011.

Downsides: The party is still a slain giant. Getting 22 per cent of the vote would have been considered a disaster pre-2011. Sure, it reflects a more urbanised society, and fragmented political landscape. The party is still overly reliant on older age groups and it’s becoming harder to distinguish it from Fine Gael. A tough term in government could again raise questions about long-term survival.

Fine Gael

Upsides: Its election result was disappointing given it was in the lead in opinion polls coming into the election. But in the context of where the party was last March, it did well. Simon Harris did inject new energy into the party until he began to flag in the first week of the campaign. That said, the party’s result was impressive on one level. It lost 17 TDs to retirement, fielded a slate of many unknown candidates, and yet managed to gain a few extra seats.

Pictured: Looking into their future…Galway West TDs, old and new, Hildegarde Naughton and  John Connolly during the recent General Election count. Photo: Brian Harding.