World of Politics with Harry McGee

1. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael stand still, yet closer to majority.

In the 2020 election Fianna Fáil got 22.2 per cent of the vote and Fine Gael got 20.9 per cent. Four years later, their percentages are almost exactly the same. Fianna Fáil is at 21.9 per cent of the vote with Fine Gael at 20.8.

There are two things to say about that. The first is that in 2020 they had a combined 73 seats, some seven short of a majority.

It’s a bigger Dáil this time (14 seats more, 174 seats in total). The combined vote of the two parties will be 86, only two short of a majority. So how did that happen?

Well, the first thing is that Sinn Féin support fell considerably, down 5.5 points from 2020. They received exactly 19 per cent support this time, down 5.5 points from four years ago.

The second is that neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil were attracting transfers in large numbers in 2020. It was different this time. Both parties sent significant transfers in the direction of their coalition partners.

Sinn Fein was not as adept at getting transfers as it was back then – if you look at the two places where it lost seats, its hopes withered on the vine for lack of transfers. There was an exception – it did get transfers from the Social Democrats (but it gave to others too), People Before Profit and Aontú (partly).

And Fianna Fáil was a little more successful too at getting transfers from other parties.

But this is the thing: Fianna Fáil had a better election, strategically, than Fine Gael.  It ended up getting one per cent more of the popular vote yet got ten more seats than Fine Gael. It ended up with 48 compared to 38 for Fine Gael. In other words, 22 per cent of the vote yet 27.5 per cent of the seats.

There are a few factors behind that. It had a smarter candidate selection than Fine Gael and Sinn Féin. It also had far more incumbents and that spoke to something.

Pictured: Catherine Connolly TD at the Galway West count. Photo: Brian Harding.