World of Politics with Harry McGee

We have been learning a lot of new phrases in the past few months since Donald Trump came into power in January: a transactional president; reciprocal tariffs; anti-coercion measures.

He has had a similar seismic effect on our world as Covid did, as the energy crisis had, as Brexit had, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had, as Israel’s onslaught of Gaza has had.

Stock markets have tumbled by 10 per cent in the past week. As of now, that does not mean too much. It’s not the canary in the coalmine, just yet. Markets tend to have Pavlovian responses to big events, in other words they panic. We have to look at markets over a sustained time period to see if the trajectory is downwards, and, if so, how quickly.

Last week’s announcement in the Rose Garden unveiling global tariffs was like a comedy. But its message and semantics was not to be dismissed. Trump had packed the crowd with auto workers and steelworkers, all in their work uniforms and wearing their colourful safety helmets. That and the big Star Spangled Banner drapes everywhere gave an unmistakable message that this was about America first.

Trump is conscious of his base and an important part of it is those blue collar workers who voted Democrat once upon a time but now vote Republican. He even had an autoworker named Brian come up to the podium and talk about the deteriorating situation for car manufacturing in Detroit, Michigan, which is the hub of the American motor industry. Brian told the audience that he was a Reagan Democrat. That is somebody who voted Democrat until Ronald Reagan came along in 1980 and then switched to the Republican … and has never switched back. A sizable portion of Irish-American voters (traditionally Democrats) also made that switch.

Like all Trump speeches it was all over the place. Shambling, rambling, with lots of diversions. But there was focus in it for his base. He spent time talking about the price of eggs. This has been the marker of rampant inflation in the US, with a dozen eggs hitting the crazy price of $12 in some places earlier this year. That was partly to do with an outbreak of avian influenza but also to do with a general increase in the cost-of-living that began during Joe Biden’s term but has continued since Trump has gone into office.

Pictured: President Trump with his Reciprocal Tariffs board on ‘Liberation Day’.