Bradley Bytes – A sort of political column by Dara Bradley

The TG4 Ipsos and B&A constituency poll of Galway West last Thursday made for grim reading for Fianna Fáil.

Where once it held three seats, the party was now in danger of not returning any.

Fianna Fáil enjoyed 23% of first preferences here in 2020, with Éamon Ó Cuív hoovering up votes. But the ‘King of Conamara’ has retired, and according to this poll, its support has slipped to 14%, split evenly between City Councillor John Connolly and political newcomer, Gráinne Seoige.

The poll has a margin of error of 4%, and so their true individual support could be 11% or 3%, or anywhere in between.

Previous Galway West polls published by TG4 have been wide of the mark. But let’s say this one is accurate and materialises on Friday next, 7% each means Fianna Fáil hasn’t a hope of two seats.

They’re now in a scrap to stave off ex-Fianna Fáil County Councillor Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland (8%), and Fine Gael Senator Sean Kyne (10%), who are both gunning for Ó Cuív’s seat.

One problem for Fianna Fáil is Éamó’s vote was personal and not just party. And that means a chunk of his supporters may look beyond Seoige and Connolly, and scatter everywhere including Catherine Connolly (Ind), Mairéad Farrell (SF) and others.

The biggest issue Fianna Fáil has is both of their candidates are neck-and-neck.

If headquarters’ preferred candidate, celebrity Seoige, was ahead in this poll, then the strategy of Dublin backing her to the hilt would’ve been justified. If she, for example, was on 9%, and John Connolly on 5%, then the party would be right to row in behind her in this final week.

But now that Connolly has the same support level in this poll as Seoige – without corresponding support during the campaign so far from head office – does he deserve a leg-up from the party machine as polling day approaches?

Bradley Bytes has seen more in-depth data of the poll, which suggests Seoige is a turn-off for women voters – she enjoys 4% support among women compared with 9% men. Connolly was 7% among both men and women.

Connolly was more popular in the older age categories, who are more likely to vote (he polled 15% of over-65s and 9% in the 55-64 category compared with 8% and 7% respectively for Seoige, but she was ahead in the 35-44 (7% versus 2%) and 45-54 (8% versus 6%) age groups.

In Oughterard, according to the poll, Connolly was on 12%, and Seoige was 0%, which is surely a statistical anomaly. In her hometown of An Spidéal, she was 15% to his 13%. Clifden was 17% Seoige, and 10% Connolly; Maigh Cuilinn was 8% Seoige and 3% Connolly; Claregalway was 7% Connolly and 5% Seoige; and they barely registered in Oranmore with Connolly 1% and Seoige 3%.

Connolly was more popular in Galway City at 7% compared with Seoige’s 4%. But if either of them is going to take a seat they need to increase the party’s overall vote share in the city to more than 11%.

Previous TG4 polls massively underestimated Noel Grealish. Apparently, the methodology of this poll gives proper weighting to the Carnmore Independent’s support. It’s been wrong before, and Fianna Fáil will be hoping it’s wrong again.

Pictured: The headline figures in the TG4 poll.