Bradley Bytes – A sort of political column by Dara Bradley

The Ipso/B&A opinion poll of Galway West, published by TG4 on November 14, two weeks from polling day, shaped the narrative of the speculation about who might win the five seats.

So how did the poll compare with the actual results? It was middling.

It predicted eight candidates would be in the hunt for five seats, but on the day, there were only seven contenders. It also underestimated support for two leading candidates, by more than the margin of error.

The poll placed Gráinne Seoige (FF) on 7%, but she wasn’t a contender in the actual election, getting just 4.8% of first preferences.

John Connolly (FF) was also on 7% in the poll, but won 11.7% of first preferences – outside the margin of error (plus or minus 4%).

Mairéad Farrell (SF) topped the poll with 13.5% but was only fifth in the TG4 poll on 9%, also outside the margin of error.

Catherine Connolly (Ind) was on 13% support in the poll but received 11.1%; Hildegarde Naughton (FG) was on 13%, and only got 9.9% first preferences.

Seán Kyne (FG) was 10% in the poll and got 8.8% on the day; Noel Thomas (Ind Ire) was 8% in the poll and 9.3% in the election. Noel Grealish (Ind) was on 12% in the poll, and 11.3% in the election.

The two candidates outside of the margin of error were John Connolly and Farrell. Ironically, the perception that they were struggling may have benefited them.

Fianna Fáil’s total poll tally was 14%, and it finished with 16.5% in the election; clearly, soft Seoige support migrated to Connolly.

Catherine Connolly and Naughton could feel aggrieved too. Did their supporters see this poll, decide they were safe and vote number one instead for their second-preference candidates?

Grealish’s poll and actual result were quite similar, but the Carnmore man was still not happy, because TG4’s poll allowed his opponents scope to credibly argue he was ‘safe’.

Conversely, did Farrell’s soft support rally after the poll put her in fifth place and, potentially, in danger of losing?

Did Noel Thomas’ poll support give licence to others to back him?

The point about these questions is we don’t know. A lot of things happened in the final weeks of the campaign, when floating voters make up their minds.

The real issue is – something this column has consistently argued – constituency opinion polls are unreliable.

And even if they were reliable, they have undue influence on how people ultimately vote, because they frame the narrative.

None of the so-called ‘also rans’ featured in the poll results and were not in contention once the real votes were counted.

But Mike Cubbard (Ind), Eibhlín Seoighthe (Soc Dem), Helen Ogbu (Lab), Pauline O’Reilly (Green), Pádraig Lenihan (Aontú), and Maisie McMaster (PBP-Sol) could all argue their campaigns suffered from a lack of credibility because the TG4 poll gave them no hope of winning.

This may have influenced soft support or undecideds, who migrated elsewhere to back potential winners.

Polls are great craic for political pundits and anoraks, and to fill white space in newspapers, but they can do more damage than good by skewing the democratic process.

Pictured: Sinn Féin’s Mairéad Farrell, seen here hugging her mother Jenny at the count, topped the Galway West poll with 13.5%. However, she was only fifth in the TG4 poll on 9%, outside the margin of error.