World of Politics with Harry McGee

The year ahead – some knowns; some unknowns, but mainly, as with most things in the future, it’s mostly unknown unknowns.

On the cusp of this decade, who could have predicted that the Covid pandemic, a war between Russia and Ukraine, or the unspeakable horror of Gaza – and its awful October 7 prelude – would have dominated the narrative of this decade?

As I’ve written here before, the prediction game is for suckers – but if you look at the job description of any political correspondent, you will see that being a sucker is one of the essential traits.

Without making myself a complete hostage to fortune, here goes.

1. The two by-elections.

We have already considered Galway West on a number of occasions in this column. The big question being asked nationally is if the political spirit of 2025 will survive into 2026. In other words, will the United Left alliance that brought Catherine Connolly into Áras and Uachtaráin carry through beyond the late October election?

Both by-elections are likely to be to be held in April. I won’t dwell too long on either other than to make a few observations.

The first is that Galway West is not a natural left-leaning constituency, a la Dublin South Central or Dublin North West. That said the left has been growing in Galway West, and two of the five seats that were won in the last election could be said to be left-leaning. And Government parties don’t do well in bye-elections.

Secondly, they can throw up odd results that have little to do with the prevailing national mood.

Galway West could see somebody from the left could use that particular strategy and run as a Catherine Connolly continuity candidate.

It could be any of the candidates of the left, but the former social democrats, Eibhlín Seoighte has been mentioned more than others, if she chooses to run.

Noel Thomas in Galway West has a prominence, having finished in sixth place in the 2024 elections. It’s inevitable that his name would be mentioned too.

Dublin Central is a left-leaning constituency, and that is where a United Left ticket should prevail.

But as I said, by elections can be unusual, and already there is a very big personality considering a run in the field.

That is, of course, that is the career criminal, Gerard Hutch, aka the Monk. who could pull a rabbit out of the hat, even though all the other parties will combine together to stop him as they did last November.

Pictured: President Catherine Connolly and her husband Brian McEnery marking her first Christmas as President of Ireland.