Bradley Bytes – A sort of political column by Dara Bradley

The Galway West bye-election probably won’t be held until late April or May next year, but the odds compilers for Paddy Power would want to brush up on their candidates before then.

At odds of 5/4, the bookmaker installed Noel Thomas, the Independent Ireland Galway County Councillor, as the early favourite to take the seat vacated by Catherine Connolly’s election to Áras an Uachtaráin.

That’s fair enough. The Moycullen man was the last candidate standing not to get elected in the General Election in this constituency in 2024, and he was among the first candidates to announce they were contesting the bye-election.

With so few others declared, Thomas possibly justifies the favourite tag at this early stage.

But Paddy Power was offering odds last week on at least three candidates who have already announced that they will not be contesting the bye-election.

Galway City Councillor Aisling Burke (SF) was second favourite to take the seat at 11/8, but she’s not even running and ruled it out weeks ago in a statement to a national newspaper.

Despite this and despite local Sinn Féin sources confirming she was not for turning, updated odds this week put Burke ahead of Thomas as the likely winner of the bye-election. Go figure!

Aontú’s Pádraig Lenihan (40/1) has also announced that he will not be running, and Social Democrats City Councillor Alan Curran (8/1) publicly declared that he was not contesting the bye-election.

They’ve even offered odds on a ‘Stephen Connolly’, who we must assume is President Catherine Connolly’s son.

Spoiler alert: Stephen Connolly hasn’t a notion of contesting the seat and his name won’t be on the ballot paper. But he’s available at 8/1 if you want to throw your money away.

At the best of times, bookies’ election odds in Ireland can be taken with a pinch of salt but the Paddy Power early odds book for Galway West was a joke.

Pictured: Noel Thomas who declared early that he would contest the Dáil seat left vacant by Catherine Connolly’s election to the Áras, has found favour with the bookies.