Political World
Don’t outstay welcome in the corridors of power
World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com
Lesson one from the world of modern democracy is this; if you are looking good for a third successive term in office, then engineer a scandal or a crisis – basically anything to collapse support for the government.
Because losing once is the key – if you don’t, people will just get tired of you being a tired government. The net result will the same. Everything will come to a shuddering halt.
If Fianna Fáil had lost the 2007 election, the likelihood is that they would have returned to power in 2011 or 2012 and would be the outgoing government now.
They would have taken over when the economy was at its lowest ebb, succeeded in deflecting most of the blame onto hapless Fine Gael and Labour, and would now be presiding over a burgeoning economy and a second term in power.
Instead, the party stayed too long at the table, and took one bet too many. The party with the most chips went ‘all in’ and lost heavily and allowed Fine Gael cruise through and take over its mantel.
Now we have an extraordinary situation where Fine Gael is now seen as the natural party of Government and Fianna Fáil is struggling to remain relevant.
There’s still two months to go to the general election and it’s already shaping up to an election where Fine Gael will be out on its own with 25 to 35 seats to spare over its nearest rival, which will be Fianna Fáil.
At this moment on time, my guess is that Fine Gael could win 65 seats. Fianna Fail will be aiming for 40 on a good day but 35 may be a realistic aim.
Labour will go in to the election with over 30 seats and come back with half of that or less. I think the party will have done enough to win ten and may even win 15.
Sinn Féin is harder to guess. A few months ago I would have said 30. But the combination of things have pushed it back. There was Mairia Cahill’s one-woman campaign against the party. Other legacy issues also cropped up.
Its less-than-clever alliance with Syriza also pushed its ambitions back once the Greek party capitulated. It will get 20 seats easily and probably 25 – but getting 30 seats might now be a bit of a push.
So that brings us to about 135 and 140. My guess is that about 25 seats will go to Independents and non-aligned TDs, less than the one per constituency that once seemed possible.
I haven’t been too prescriptive. In all honesty, many of the final seats in the election will be decided by a sliver and you would need to have the combined powers of Nostradamus and Old Moore’s Almanac to divine how they are going to turn out.
Secondly, there is still two months to go and a lot can happen. Fine Gael might continue to gather momentum and come close to an overall majority. But then votes might get cold feet at the notion of that and vote tactically for another party.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
An Opposition party is a bit like an invading army trying to surmount the defences of a seemingly impregnable fortress – constantly surveying the moat, the drawbridge, the doors and the battlements to spot any weakness.
For a Government party, the chink usually reveals itself when it tries to push through a deeply unpopular policy – like, for example, the decision to bring the eviction ban to a close at the end of March.
The Government’s thinking was that, by delaying the end of it, it was storing up problems for itself. The longer it left the measure in place, the bigger the queue of landlords who wished to sell up when the restrictions were lifted, triggering a huge number of evictions.
As it was, even ending the restriction now, according to campaigners such as Peter McVerry, was going to cause a “tsunami” of evictions.
Senior Coalition figures admitted that it was going to have an impact on homelessness in the short term.
As soon as the Government announced it was lifting the ban, there was a hue and cry from the Opposition.
Several back benchers in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael expressed concern but were brought around by assurances from senior Ministers that local authorities and approved housing bodies would be given the go-ahead to buy properties from landlords who were selling up and leaving tenants in situ.
However, if there are any upsides to the move, they will not become apparent for months at the very least, by which time there could be a big spike in the homelessness figures.
From the moment the decision was made, the Green Party TD for Dublin Central Neasa Hourigan signalled she opposed the move.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
The last local elections in May 2019 were dominated by the story of a big swing; nothing to do with the voting though – it was the famous swing in the Dublin version of the Dean Hotel that former TD Maria Bailey took a tumble from.
That’s how exciting local and European elections are for the media and the public. As a political story, they ran a distant second to the so-called Swing-gate.
As it happened there were political swings too. In the locals, the Greens made big gains. Fianna Fáil and the Social Democrats made some gains. Fine Gael was treading water. Sinn Féin lost a fair few seats.
It was a little different for Europeans. The Greens gained two seats. Fianna Fáil gained two but failed to take one in Midlands North West. Sinn Féin lost two of its three MEPs. Fine Gael ended up winning four with Maria Walsh taking a second seat in Midlands North West.
At the time, Sinn Féin was on a downward slope and had been since the general election of 2016. What won it gains in 2014, messages of anti-austerity, protests against water charges, no longer applied. It was struggling to find its feet.
It lost almost half its seats in the locals, falling from 159 down to 81. Its share of the vote had dipped to below 10 per cent, a drop of 5.6 per cent.
So, the ‘read’ at the time of the 2019 election was that Fianna Fáil seemed to be continuing its recovery from the nadir of 2011 into the next general election. Fine Gael was in its second term of government and was concerned about holding its own. Sinn Fein looked like it would have a difficult general election.
For the Councils, Fianna Fáíl held remained the largest party in local government and showed strongly in working class areas of Dublin. Its European election was mediocre though.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
In 1980s Galway, we teenagers thought we were different as we listened to U2, wore Smiths badges on our lapels, and railed against the conservatism of our parents’ generation.
But we weren’t. Ireland was a mono-everything society – church, State, political parties, race, and thinking.
We were more conformist than radical but didn’t know it at the time.
At the time there were two dominant political parties. Over 80 per cent of the population voted for them. They included a majority of practically every demographic.
Implicit in that vast vote for the establishment party was a deference, more or less, from the population for the powerful institutions of the State.
The death grip of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael was loosened gradually in succeeding decades. That said, until a decade ago, it was inconceivable to think any other party would be able to form a government.
Because if you didn’t want to vote for Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil, where did you turn?
Labour might have been an alternative. But the party went in with Fine Gael in 2011 with 37 seats and got hammered in 2016 and were left with seven. So they were hardly going to step up to the breach, were they?
The battering of Labour told us another lecture. There had been a long tradition in Irish politics of the smaller party in government taking a hiding after the election. Labour were (nominally) the small party in government and suffered because of it.
What people did not fully realise then was that it was not just the smaller party in government that was coming out worse when they next encountered the electorate. It was also the main party in government.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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